2024-06-19 - a daily price action after hour update - dax/bitcoin
Juneteenth slow markets - not much to write about
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - Nothing to update here. Markets kept inside their tight trading ranges. Below I will focus on how I expect for tomorrow.
Commodities same.
dax
comment: I added a horizontal orange dotted bar to every chart which marks the middle of the weekly range. Makes a lot of moves much more obvious. For dax that’s 18100, no surprise there. Yesterday bulls tried to keep it support, today bears flipped it to resistance later on. I don’t know when we will get the next breakout. Could be this week or next week. Since this week is Opex, I think we will see a bigger move into Friday. Given the weakness of the last weeks, I lean bearish but 18000 is big support so the reasonable take is that I don’t know if we break below or above 18300 again. I let the market decide and will follow. If we close this week below 18000, we will see 17600 next week.
current market cycle: probably bear trend if the pullback stays under 18300/18360
key levels: 18000 - 18400
bull case: Bulls need a good 1h bar close above 18200 for higher prices. Not much more magic to it. First bull target then is 18300 and a higher high above 18356.
Invalidation is below 18000.
bear case: Bears want to test 18000 again tomorrow. Big question is then, how big the reaction by the bulls is. Right now we are not seeing any bigger buying. Bulls are scalping and quick to exit positions. The fact that we could get a 1h close above 18200 is very bearish. Hard to make bigger predictions at this price level. Need to see a big break below 18000 to convince me we are going lower.
Invalidation is above 18360.
short term: neutral. Market is in balance here until breakout above 18200 or below 18000.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Just don’t on these days.
bitcoin
comment: Let’s review the 4h chart because market is respecting the 20ema on this tf big time. Every touch has been sold since last Monday. The current low at 64000 was not deep enough to touch both lower bear trend lines so either we get another lower low or 64000 is bigger support and we will touch one or both upper bear trend lines. Market dipped below the big bull trend line yesterday and will probably have a daily close today below it. Since the selling is getting weaker, I expect a pullback soon. We should hit the 4h 20ema most likely and then it gets interesting. Small upper bear trend line around 65000 is possible and if bulls really want to try something, they will go for the bigger one to about 66000/66500.
current market cycle: Trading Range / on shorter tf it’s a broad bear channel, see channel on chart
key levels: small range 63000 - 67000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls only target for now is a 1h close above the 4h 20ema. That’s the magic here. Higher targets given above.
Invalidation is below 63500.
bear case: Bears in full control here. Their main goal is to break below all lower bear trend lines and below 63500 for a freefall to 60000/61000. I expect bears to continue to sell every rip. That has been working for 8 days now. —unchanged
Invalidation is above 66000.
short term: Bearish but bears getting weaker. Need to see how high the next pullback get before calculating new lower targets or if bulls have a shot of breaking above 67000 again.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Dont.
That’s it for today, have a good night and talk to you tomorrow.
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