2025-06-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
wrong header before - dax lagging us markets but bears are too weak again
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Good for the bears that Friday’s Globex open was defended 23742 but we are making higher highs and higher lows since Friday in a weak channel. Bears can argue that at least dax is not pumping like the us markets. We are in the middle of the channel and that is always the worst place to trade. The next best trend line is around 24000 and if US markets continue, I doubt dax can stay at the lows. I would rather look for longs 23600 or below than looking for longs.
nasdaq e-mini futures - Neutral but rather looking for longs since bears vanished. Buying the highs is likely bad but another bull wedge 100 points below the June high is rather bullish. Bears can argue head & shoulders but they need a huge surprise and a reversal from at least 200 points to get below 22000 again. Since we have left a big gap to 22050, I expect a bullish breakout more than a bearish one. Targets above are 22310 and above that is no more resistance until 22500. Below 22000 I expect 21900 to get tested and then 21800 if bears show strength.
wti crude oil futures - What. The. Fuck. 6.5% gap up to sell 11% from the highs. Get the fuck outta here. Bears defended the 2024-04 and 2025-01 highs and bulls defended the start of the bull spike from last Friday around 68.5 (low was 69.37). What now? Sideways inside a 1000 point range. Good luck eh.
bitcoin - Neutral but structure is really bullish right now. Bulls trying another one. Bears have to defend 110564 or this prints a new ath above 112k. Will only think about selling again if we print below 106k.
dax futures
comment: Market is much weaker than sp500 and nq, which is always unusual. We are staying below 23724, which is good for the bears but we are in a weak bull channel and making higher highs and higher lows since the Friday sell spike. Both sides make money and market is currently in balance around 23560ish. Clear invalidation prices for both sides and until then it’s buy low, sell high and scalp.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23300 - 24000
bull case: Bulls want to accelerate upwards, close the Globex gap to 23800 and retest 24000. End of story. They are currently a bit favored since we are in a bull channel but only slightly. Market has to stay above 23500 if they want to continue higher. If broader bullishness on markets continues, dax won’t stay below 23800 tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 23500.
bear case: Given that US markets pumped again, dax lags big time. Bears need to keep the gap to 23800 open and print something below 23500 again. If they continue sideways, their chances of another leg down to 23000 become better. My weekly outlook was that we correct sideways for a couple of days before we get another leg down, So far I think this is unfolding.
Invalidation is above 23800.
short term: Neutral around 23650. Bullish really only above 23800 or closer to 23500. If we stay above 23560 tomorrow, I expect another try at 23700 and above 23742 bears will give up for at least 23800.
medium-long term from 2025-06-15: Bull trend has most likely concluded. Long term shorts are fine. Stop has to be at least 24508. I see it 70% or more that we will see 22000 before end of August.
trade of the day: Long around 23500 on EU open since Globex breakout from 23400 was bullish enough to expect a second leg up or at least a re-test of the high 23620 which would have been good for 100 points but was actually good for 220 if you held. The short around 23700 was tough. bears should signs of wanting a trading range with the structure after EU open and the sell-off from 23724 was unexpected in it’s strength since US markets pumped that hard.
That’s it for today, have a good night and talk to you tomorrow.
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