2025-06-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
bears not doing enough - most markets going sideways and will likely continue to do so
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral 23300/23400. Bears selling every rip but since we are not making meaningful lower lows, market is in breakout mode. One side will give up and as of now I favor the bears to get to 23000 instead of the bulls printing 24000 again. Descending triangle and you should not jump on to the first breakout we get. Often times these are traps. Clear invalidation for thesis: if bulls print above 23500, I am wrong and we can go higher again. Below 23280ish (breakout-retest-follow through needed) we can go for 23000.
nasdaq e-mini futures - Neutral around 22000. Nothing changed. Triangles everywhere, buy low sell high and scalp. Will see a breakout of the smallest one tomorrow but I doubt we do a big trend day to either side UNLESS US starts bombing away, then it’s risk off for days. Bulls need 22150+ and bears 1h close below 21800.
wti crude oil futures - Neutral. 74 seems to be the big resistance. Also a triangle on this chart with a clear bull trend line. We will see a breakout tomorrow or Friday. No opinion on where this might go.
bitcoin - Neutral but want to be bear below 102700. Big days tomorrow and Friday. Bulls got rejected 4 times now and that qualifies as a decent top. Once we break below key support, this will likely accelerate down. Also a triangle on the daily chart, which also means breakout mode.
dax futures
comment: Market has not traded above prior day’s high for 9 sessions. Can we do 10 and accelerate down? I would love it but it’s getting a bit unlikely without a better pullback. I can not see bulls coming back from this tbh but I have been wrong about this before. Bears need a big breakout below and accelerate down. Bulls some higher highs to continue sideways between 23000/24000.
current market cycle: broad bull channel on the weekly chart. Daily chart is in a trading range 23000 - 24500
key levels: 23000 - 24000
bull case: Any higher high will do and could lead to couple of legs up for 24000. Whole story because right now they don’t have any arguments besides having support around 23300 and bears unable to make meaningful lower lows. Time-wise we have been going down for 9 sessions and at some point bulls will give up hope and we flush down if they don’t reverse strongly over the next 1-2 sessions.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Clear target for bears is 23000 and leaving behind a decent gap 23700-24000. They are favored since we are only printing lower highs. Bears have to keep it below 23400 or risk hopeful bulls buying for 23505 which was last week’s close and if we close this week above it, it will be a weekly bull bar and likely a doji. That’s neutral and good for bulls. For this to go down, bears have to print a weekly bar closing on it’s low and below prior support.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral around 23300 but I think we can do 23000 this week. Don’t bet on the breakout before it happens. Shorts closer to 23500 are likely good, unless strong bulls overwhelm the bears tomorrow.
medium-long term from 2025-06-15: Bull trend has most likely concluded. Long term shorts are fine. Stop has to be at least 24508. I see it 70% or more that we will see 22000 before end of August.
trade of the day: Selling anything close to 23400 and buying anything at 23300. The early pump before EU open was a nasty bull trap but shorts with stop above yesterday’s high 23567 were the obvious trade.
That’s it for today, have a good night and talk to you tomorrow.
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