2025-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
bear surprise to start the month - test of daily 20ema or start of a bigger leg down?
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Markets are completely mixed and dax would need to print below 23600 for the bulls to lose hope. We are still above the daily ema and could reverse up from 23800. Right now bears are in control and we have a tight bear channel down. Below 23600 I think we test down to 23100 but it’s far away and the channel is too tight. Bulls need to break the bear trend line and print above 24000 for more upside.
nasdaq e-mini futures - Neutral for now. Bear surprise but look at the daily chart, it’s not even a dent in this climactic rally. Bears would need a strong follow-through day below 22500 for this to mean something and I doubt they can get it. Other markets stayed up or even rallied, so overall sentiment is not bearish. Above 22800 this will likely go for 23000 and only below 22500 I would consider lower targets.
wti crude oil futures - Neutral. Weekly update said it all. Range is 63 - 67.
bitcoin - Bearish. Clear rejection again under 110k and we are going lower. Only a big bull surprise could reverse this. Targets below are 100k and then 98k if bears are strong. Stop for shorts is 109k.
dax futures
comment: If I had longs for 24400+ I would really doubt my position right now. Problem for the bears is, that it’s not low enough to be definitive. Only below 23600 we are making lower lows again and those can not happen in bull trends. Strong enough selling but I have my doubts that bears get follow-through tomorrow. Especially when other markets are rallying instead of selling. Above 24000 we likely see more upside but if bears are strong, they keep the market below and continue lower.
current market cycle: unclear. bull trend could continue but trading range is most likely
key levels: 23100 - 24500
bull case: Bulls need to stay above 23700 bad and continue higher for 24000. If they manage to break above 24k and the bear trend line, there is no reason why we can’t have another strong leg up. Until the bear channel is broken, they are not favored for anything. This could have been a retest of the daily 20ema, but only if we move strongly higher tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 23600.
bear case: Bears need follow-through below 23600 and close the gap to 23540. Then they have a good argument to trade down to 23100 or lower. Right now I would not short the lows because the risk of trading back up to 24000 is too big. The bear channel is clear and valid until broken.
Invalidation is above 24050ish.
short term: Slightly bullish that we bottom out above 23750 and trade back up to 24000 but I would only do small scalps here. Anything below 23700 would surprise me more than 24000.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Short from EU open.
That’s it for today, have a good night and talk to you tomorrow.
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