#202524 - priceactiontds - weekly update
bear surprise on Friday - can they get follow-through next week?
Good Day and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Markets broke out of their bull wedges and printed weekly bear bars. Most important question for Monday is, can bear get follow-through? If they don’t, it confirms the trading range and we could go sideways for longer. If markets decide another war might finally be a risk-off event, maybe we can reverse. The weekly charts are not bearish yet and selling this based on them or the daily chart is early. If you have a big account and can scale in, it can work though. Even if bulls keep it at the highs, any upside is likely very limited now. The most important thing for Monday is to not be too bearish because if bears were strong, they would have never allowed the market to retrace more than 50% from Friday’s sell spike, like most did.
I once again messed up opex dates, sorry for that. Opex June is next Friday 20th.
current market drivers
Recession is the narrative for 2025. Every news that hints to one or against it will move the markets, like inflation did in 2022. My assumption is that Q2 will most likely be really bad for many companies and it will bring us below the big bull trend lines from the Covid low, so markets enter a big trading range for the next months/years.
Oh yeah, tariffs. For everyone living under a rock. Obviously any bad news on tariffs or trade deals will move the markets because it will manifest the recession quicker.
Oil above 70% puts pressure on energy prices. We have not traded above 80 since 2023-10. That would certainly change some inflation data points.
tl;dr
dax futures: Bearish. 5 consecutive bear days is certainly marking the end of this bull trend but selling at prior support 23500 is tough. Friday day bears did much better than sp500/nq and stayed around the 50% retracement, which is a sign of strength. If the double top 23580 holds, I expect another leg down to 23000. If we break the trend line and go above 23580, we could test all the way up to 24000 again. I favor the bears but would not short 23500 based on the current structure or you would need at least 1000 point stop an scale in. I think 24508 will be the top for at least 2025.
nasdaq e-mini futures: Neutral. Market stayed above the daily 20ema and it could not even touch it for that matter. That means, even when a new war starts somewhere, this is not enough. Insane strength since we have not touched the daily 20ema since end of April. Otherwise same reasoning as for dax. Shorting 21640 based on current structure is bad. Bears need to do more. I also think 22094 is a credible top and swing shorts for next weeks/months can work but confirmation is only a daily close below 21450.
wti crude oil futures: Bullish on every pullback. Last Sunday I was bearish but bulls invalidated that early Monday and I wrote at least 2 times last week that we are going higher, before Friday happened. 70 is the most obvious price that has to hold, no matter what. If bulls even stay above 70.8, we will likely see a retest of 75 on Monday and if things get worse, 80 is the next target above.
gold: Neutral but would only look for longs. 3475 is the line in the sand for bulls. If they break it, no reason not to print 3500 or new ath. We are still inside a bull wedge and below 3427 it’s more likely that we test down to the trend line around 3380ish.
bitcoin: “Full bear mode. This shit is over.” Confirmation is a daily close below 100k and so far bulls trying to hold it but once we get below 102k, 100k is most likely next and there I expect a bit more sideways before we break to the down side.
#fdax futures
comment: Bears leaving no doubt who is in control of the market now. Volume is picking up on the move down and bear bars are getting bigger. I expect a bit more fighting around 23500 but once we break below, 23000 is the next target and also likely a gap close down to 22600. I have drawn my least bearish wave thesis on the chart where the 50% retracement gets hit over the next weeks. Much more bearish would be the 20000 target. If this selling continues without a pullback, I will adjust the legs.
current market cycle: trading range until we close below 23200 - then we are in the new bear trend. As of now the continuation inside the range is more likely.
key levels for next week: 22600 - 24000
bull case: Got nothing for the bulls but in case we trade back above 23580, we have to assume sideways for longer. I don’t think we can try another new ath after this selling. Bulls found support at the sell-spike from the 50% tariff announcement. If overall markets won’t sell off early on Monday, we can expect some sideways movement before market gets the next impulse up or down. Anything above 24100 would surprise me big time.
Invalidation is below 23280
bear case: 23280 is the price to break for more downside and 23580 is the most important price for bears to prevent the bulls from getting. If 23580 holds, we can do another strong leg down to close the gap 22600. If we go above, the next bear trend line would be around 23950ish and if we get there we will likely test 24000 again. After 5 consecutive bear bars, bulls can not hold longs in hope for another run at the highs. The bear bars are getting bigger and market tested above 24000 enough to know there are not enough buyers. Bulls tried 4 times to 3 times to continue the trend. Selling this top with long term shorts is as good as it gets. On lower time frames I expect a bit more sideways before another leg down.
Invalidation is above 23280
short term: Neutral but only on time frames lower than 4h. W1 has likely concluded but I expect at least a big second leg down to 22600ish. Bears have to keep it below 23580 or we could test back up to 24000.
medium-long term from 2025-06-15: Bull trend has most likely concluded. Long term shorts are fine. Stop has to be at least 24508. I see it 70% or more that we will see 22000 before end of August.
#mnq1 - nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: I do think we will continue to print lower highs from 22094. Very clear invalidation price for that thesis is a print above 21855. 21000 is my target for the next days/weeks. A strong daily bear close below the daily 20ema around 21450 would be my confirmation. Above 21855 we continue to chop sideways and could retest 22094.
current market cycle: trading range most likely for now until we have a daily close below 20ema
key levels for next week: 21450 - 21855 (below 21450 - next target is 21000 and above 21855 next target is 22000)
bull case: Bulls outdid themselves by almost completely reversing the strong sell-off on Friday. That certainly was unexpected but now is decision time. Can they keep the market above 21500 a second time? If so, most bears will likely be quick to give up again and we can continue sideways 21500 - 22100 or even higher. Since we did not close below the daily ema, bulls remain in control.
Invalidation is below 21450
bear case: Bears see the bull wedge as broken and want to trade down from here. The top we have formed is a credible double top with ath 22656 and good for swing shorts. Bulls have been given two amazing macro numbers last week, especially the cpi print and we could not break strongly above. Instead we got a spike and it crumbled afterwards. Those are the type of things that don’t happen in bull trends.
Invalidation is above 21855
short term: Neutral for now and I wait for the breakout to either side. I want to favor the bears but they were so weak after the Globex sell spike on Friday, it’s not wise to hope they suddenly become strong.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-15: Daily close below 21450 is my validation for the new bear trend which has the first bigger target at 21000 but I think we will printed below 20000 again this year. Structure is obviously not yet bearish, so don’t be early if you want confirmation and can’t/won’t scale in to shorts higher.
#mcl1 - wti crude oil futures
comment: Good week for oil bulls but still a lower high below the April high 78.1. Now what? If this buying is the real thing and market is expecting higher prices for longer, the pullback will stay above 70. If bulls do that, we can expect at least a second leg up to retest 75+ or even 80+. We are seeing a full on war between Israel and Iran but you should not trade based on that. There are bulls who bought above 73 on Friday and lost Money so far.
current market cycle: trading range 54 - 78 on the weekly tf. Decent chance we are in a bull trend that could lead to 80/84 or higher.
key levels: 70 - 77
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side. They now need to leave a big open gap to 69.3 and then we can do a measured move up. My lowest target for that is 80. Structure on the 1h chart is a textbook two-legged pullback and above 74.5 it’s a clear buy signal.
Invalidation is below 70.8 but can likely also be 70
bear case: Bears do not have much. They trapped late bulls on Friday and that’s a likely reason we sold off 677 ticks from the high. They need lower lows below 70.8 and close the gap to the Thursday high before the news-bomb hit. For that to happen they have to break 2 bull trend lines. I will not look for shorts on this tbh.
Invalidation is above 74.5
short term: Bullish. Maybe a bit more sideways but I have given two invalidation prices for bulls and couple of targets above. I don’t think looking for shorts makes any sense unless you are really good at scalping.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-15: Maybe we have seen the 2-year trading range coming to an end on Friday and we are in a new bull trend that could lead oil to 80 or higher. Right now it’s pure guesswork until we print higher highs above Friday’s 77.62. Oil above 80 is not something we have seen since end of 2023 so expect some ripples.
#btcusd - bitcoin
comment: Last week I printed another potential two-legged correction where the C would print a new ath. Bulls were to weak to even retest 112k and 110k was all they got. Now I do think there are many more reasons that this will be the mother of all doubles tops than any arguments for the bulls exist, how they could print a new ath. Structure is decent and market has spent many days at the top trying to continuing the trend. Confirmation is a daily close below 100k.
current market cycle: Broad bull channel on the weekly tf. Market is about to re-test the ath and will likely transition into a trading range afterwards or we are already in one.
key levels: 100k - 115k
bull case: Bulls are still hopeful, that’s why we are still above 110k but the next touch could break it and I doubt many will hold long or scale into new ones there. Best bulls can get right now is to go sideways for longer and stay above 100k. I mean… Staying above 100k is as bullish as it get’s if you be honest.
Invalidation is a daily close below 100k
bear case: Can we also get a new bear trend from 110k? We would need 4-5 consecutive daily bear closes for that. Right now bears are only getting 4 but prices is not moving much during those 4 and the bars are overlapping too much. Bulls are still hopeful. Bears need to do more if they want lower prices again. As of now bulls are favored to continue inside the given range.
Invalidation is above 113k
short term: Bearish with stop 113k. Will scale into shorts and take some profits around 100k until we see a big breakout below.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08:
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08: “Need to see a clear sign that bulls can not push it beyond 112k and once we turn again from closer to the ath, I will comment on bear targets for the next months.”
This was from last week and market provided this clear sign with the amazing double top but only a daily close below 100k is confirmation. First target below 100k is 97k the breakout retest and after that is the 50% retracement around 93000.
That’s it for today, have a profitable week and all the best to you.
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