#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update
everything is perfect - markets can only go up, can they
Good Day and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
I was proven wrong early on Monday, which is always nice because then it’s never expensive. Markets are max bullish, overbought, overdone, complacent, blind to any risk, very late in the trend and still only going higher. All of that is true and most of all, bears are not making money. The past weeks I have laid out enough risks why I think we are near the top but until we actually see big bear bars, those do not matter. We can still move higher since the momentum is carrying this big time. I am completely fine with the markets going another 1-3% from here, without me. Sp500 has done 20% in 67 days and that is as climactic and unsustainable as it gets. Now it tries to break above the bull channel in panic buying for a new ath (cash index printed a new one already, so take this with a grain of salt) and no matter how strong this looks, I would never buy it. My bear targets for the next 5 months remain the same. For most markets I expect at least a 10% from these highs but I think we can do 15-20 again.
current market drivers
Recession. I still think earnings will deteriorate in Q2 for many companies and we go down from there. US Q1 was revised to -0.5% growth and there is no way Q2 will show growth, given the tariffs shit show.
Tariffs. 7 days or so until the EU and the US should come around with a trade deal *chuckle*. No matter if they postpone the tariffs again or not, if you think companies will ignore this shit show they call trade negotiations, you clearly have never heard of risk management or worked for any company which handles those matters with risk aversion.
Oil far below 70 again, all is well I guess. The middle east can live in peace now.
tl;dr
dax futures: Neutral. Last week closed very bullish and it looks like it could go higher but I will not buy it. We have gone down for 2 weeks straight and now we are melting higher? Risk of this printing a higher low are too big for me to be willing to buy above 24000 in hope of 24600+. Only below 23600 I will look for lower targets though. Until then I sit on hands. Daily ema is flat, so don’t expect wild stuff next week, without any help from the news side.
nasdaq e-mini futures: Neutral but only interested in shorts. New ath for futures would be 22873 but that does not matter much since cash index already made a new one. Market tries to break above the previous bull channel and every time this happens late in a trend, I see the chance of it being a trap far greater than an acceleration of the trend. Market gained 5%+ last week and Until we see prices below 22500, I will not view anything as bearish anymore. 23000 is the obvious target for the bulls.
wti crude oil futures: Neutral. I was max bullish at 73.84, given the news, and market went to 79, which was pretty amazing but was anyone able to book those profits? Did not matter, market closed the week -17% from the high. If news come around, we might do more big moves but until then market has likely to continue sideways in a bigger range 63 - 70. If bears are strong, we go below 63 before more sideways.
gold: Neutral. Market should find support because we are near the bull trend line and close to 3300. 3 clear legs down also and I’m expecting more of a ranging market than one that breaks to the downside an continues. If bears are strong, we go for 3200 but I doubt it. Most likely it’s 3260 - 3400 next week.
bitcoin: Neutral but also only interested in shorts. Market is clearly struggling to print higher highs above 110k but since we are trying the third time, bulls could get it over the next days. Below 106k I favor trading down to 100k again. Bull flag/bear channel, both are right. We are going sideways and it could go on for longer now.
#fdax futures
comment: Monday was neutral and the warning to bears that the markets do not care about the risk at hand. Tuesday’s gap up then was the sign of bull strength and defending the Globex gap was the sure sign we are going higher. Thursday was the bears giving up and since we have a measured move target up to 24700. I have drawn my 5-wave thesis on the chart, which I think is currently the most likely outcome. All depends if the US markets continue the squeeze as well. There is always the possibility that Friday marked the highs but that is very low and in the absence of bear bars, we can only assume higher prices.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 23500 - 25000
bull case: Bulls made the bears give up on Thursday and since we have been going only up. The obvious next targets are 24500 and then 25000. As of now, there is absolutely no reason to assume we reverse from here and print lower lows again. Bulls took over control of the market again and we have two clear legs up, with a third one we may do a new ath but as always, every pattern can fail.
Invalidation is below 23500
bear case: Not much. A pullback is expected but so is the third leg up for W5 and everything below 23500 would be a huge bear surprise and cut this short. As of now I don’t think this chart can lead you to looking for shorts. We would need a break of two bull trend lines and prices below 23500 before you should think bearish again.
Invalidation is above 24400
short term: Bearish was the obvious read last weekend and when bears failed on Monday, it set the stage for an explosive move to the upside. That can always happen since we are in a profession where you play odds.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
#mnq1 - nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Similar to dax and for most other markets. Cash index made a new ath and broke strongly above the trading range. This is W5 which I thought was cut short but I guess not. It’s most likely the end of the trend since the trading range went on for about 6 weeks, which in this case was likely the final flag. Futures could now aim to print 23000 and touch the bull trend line which began in 2021 and went though the ath from 2024-12.
current market cycle: resumption of the bull trend but likely the final flag and we most likely will top out here around/under 23000
key levels for next week: 22000 - 23000
bull case: Bulls printed 5 consecutive bull bars. They are in full control and could pump it to 23000. Purely based on momentum and squeezing shorts. Got nothing else for the bulls.
Invalidation is below 21500
bear case: Bears gave up on Monday and I doubt they want to fight this until we hit the bull trend line or 23000. Most bears will wait for a clear topping sign that bulls are beginning to take bigger profits before they think about shorts. As of now, bears have zero arguments on their side. Only a daily close below 22300 would confirm this bull trap and fake breakout above the bull channel and then we could test down to 21900ish but for now I think it’s most likely we go higher.
Invalidation is above 23100
short term: Neutral. Will only scalp longs on huge momentum and I will only start thinking about shorts once we break below 22300 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again.
#mcl1 - wti crude oil futures
comment: Yeah I don’t know about this one. Your guess is as good as mine. I could even see this touching 63 before going higher again. Most erratic and extreme price action the past 2 weeks, so maybe wait a bit before jumping the train here.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 63 - 80
bull case: Bulls don’t have much. They could not close one decent bar at the high since 2025-06-11 and despite all the bull spikes, we only sold afterwards and are back below 65 where the extreme breakout happened. Best guess here is that we stay above 63 and go sideways. Sideways up to where? No idea. Could be 68, could be 70.
Invalidation is below 63
bear case: Too extreme. Both sides have to take quick profits or the next spike will take them away again. So most likely sideways in a range until a newsbomb hit again. Range could be 63 - 68.
Invalidation is above 79
short term: Neutral. Not touching this unless someone threatens me with a gun.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: Let’s leave this as “todo” for now. No read on this and I won’t make stuff up just to post something.
#btcusd - bitcoin
comment: Neutral since bears fumbled it again. Range is clear, don’t have much else to say about this. Bulls want 113k+ and bears need a strong daily close below 100k for more downside.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 100k - 115k
bull case: Bulls are still hopeful, that’s why we are still above 110k but the next touch could break it and I doubt many will hold long or scale into new ones there. Best bulls can get right now is to go sideways for longer and stay above 100k. I mean… Staying above 100k is as bullish as it get’s if you be honest. Same as last week since nothing has changed for the bulls. Trading range since mid May.
Invalidation is a strong daily close below 100k
bear case: Bears fumbled it again. Strong daily close below 100k or we won’t go lower. Right now odds favor the bears to go down from 107k to 100k but need more selling pressure.
Invalidation is above 110k
short term: As neutral as can be.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-29: Strong daily close below 100k will be the confirmation for more downside. First target below 100k is 97k the breakout retest and after that is the 50% retracement around 93k. I have no bullish for the next weeks/months. Once the gap to 97k closes we are likely in a bear trend again and I expect to hit at least 85k over the summer.
That’s it for today, have a profitable week and all the best to you.
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